With the 98th Academy Awards set to take place on March 15, the final stretch of awards season has begun to clarify the likely winners across several major categories. While the Oscars have historically produced surprises, the results of key precursor awards—such as the Directors Guild of America (DGA), BAFTA, and various critics’ circles—have helped establish a group of clear frontrunners heading into Hollywood’s biggest night.
This year’s race is defined by two dominant films: One Battle After Another and Sinners, whose rivalry has come to symbolize the broader direction of contemporary Hollywood storytelling.
Best Picture: A Two-Film Race
Most industry observers now see the Best Picture race narrowing to two contenders.
Directed by Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another has emerged as the season’s most consistent awards performer, winning several major guild prizes and critics’ honors. The film’s blend of political satire and action spectacle has resonated with critics and industry voters alike, positioning it as the likely Best Picture winner.
Its main challenger, Sinners, directed by Ryan Coogler, has taken a different path to Oscar prominence. The film—an ambitious historical thriller set in the American South—has combined strong critical reception with significant industry support and a record 16 Oscar nominations, making it one of the most visible contenders of the season.
While One Battle After Another is widely viewed as the current frontrunner, the scale of enthusiasm behind Sinners means the race remains competitive.
Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson’s Moment
The Best Director category appears more decisive.
After winning several key precursor awards—including the Directors Guild and BAFTA—Paul Thomas Anderson is widely expected to secure his first Academy Award for directing One Battle After Another.
Despite multiple nominations throughout his career, Anderson has never won an Oscar for directing, leading many observers to see this year’s race as a long-awaited recognition of one of contemporary cinema’s most influential filmmakers.
Acting Races: Strong Favorites Emerge
Several acting categories have also begun to solidify.
For Best Actor, Michael B. Jordan has emerged as the leading candidate for his performance in Sinners, portraying twin brothers in a story set in 1930s Mississippi.
Meanwhile, Jessie Buckley is widely considered the favorite for Best Actress for her role in Hamnet, a historical drama directed by Chloé Zhao.
Supporting categories remain somewhat more open, though early predictions suggest strong momentum for actors connected to One Battle After Another.
Other Notable Contenders
Beyond the major frontrunners, several films are expected to play key roles across technical and specialty categories.
Frankenstein has been particularly strong in design categories, dominating guild awards for costume design, production design, and makeup.
International cinema also remains highly visible this year, with films such as The Secret Agent and Sentimental Value widely viewed as leading contenders in the international feature race.
Meanwhile, the animated feature category is expected to be led by KPop Demon Hunters, whose global cultural impact has been widely noted during awards season.
A Season Reflecting Hollywood’s Changing Landscape
The 2026 Oscars race also highlights several broader shifts within the film industry.
Large-scale studio productions, auteur-driven filmmaking, and internationally financed projects all appear prominently among the year’s nominees. The competition between One Battle After Another and Sinners, in particular, reflects an industry navigating the balance between prestige filmmaking and commercially ambitious storytelling.
As the awards season reaches its final stage, the central question remains whether the Academy will follow the momentum of the precursor awards—or deliver one of the surprises for which Oscar night has long been known.
For now, however, the awards trajectory suggests that the evening may belong to One Battle After Another.
But in Hollywood, certainty rarely lasts until the envelope is opened.
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